Some recent observations from Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) statement:

• Demand for palm oil from China and India may start rising due to inventory replenishment ahead of summer and ongoing discount against soybean oil.
• China projected to increase its palm oil imports in May and June being the start of the summer that typically sees higher consumption.
• India will also capitalise on the current prices to replenish depleted stockpile.
• Hence palm oil prices are expected to remain supported at RM3900 per tonne in coming weeks, underpinned by a recovery in soybean oil prices.
• In 2024, India imported some 3.03 million tonnes of palm oil from Malaysia (18% of Malaysia’s total exports of the edible oil) while China that bought 1.39 million tonnes.
• Palm oil inventory in Malaysia expected to rise from April 2025 onwards. However build-up will be moderate due to weak YOY production growth, particularly in Sabah.
• Palm oil production in Sabah declined 10% from January to March 2025, reaching its lowest level in five years.
• Overall, palm oil production is expected to fall to around 19 million tonnes this year (from 19.3 million tonnes in 2024).